Main Street, Wall Street and Policy Makers: Impact of Immigration, Deportation and Transition Challenges
Written by Henry Welt, Guest Contributor/ July 16, 2025
Henry Welt is an attorney, educator, and strategic business advisor.
A graduate of Columbia Law School, Henry spent years practicing Business, Commercial, and Intellectual Property Law at a mid-sized firm in New York City. He recognized early on that public and privately held companies require distinct legal approaches and went on to found the first-ever Family Owned and Controlled Business Practice Group within a U.S. law firm — a groundbreaking move that reflected both insight and foresight.
Henry’s strategic expertise extended beyond law into the luxury sector, where he served as CEO of Van Cleef & Arpels, North America. As part of the leadership team, he helped successfully guide the sale of VC&A to a major global luxury brand. He has since led additional ventures within the industry, bringing his hallmark blend of business acumen and cultural sophistication to each.
An impassioned educator, Henry teaches at the Fashion Institute of Technology (FIT) in both the International Trade & Marketing and Entrepreneurship Departments. He proudly served as the founding chair of FIT’s Entrepreneurship Program, where he helped shape the next generation of creative business leaders.
Most recently, Henry co-founded Ossining Innovates!, an inclusive entrepreneurship accelerator designed to empower underserved communities. The program fosters high-level entrepreneurial skill sets and mindsets in an environment customized to the real-world needs of its participants — reinforcing Henry’s lifelong commitment to equity, opportunity, and transformation.
Overview
Looking only at national economic data to understand the effects of today’s immigration deportation policies gives, at best, a partial view of the impact they are having on local, regional and ultimately, on the national economy. At worst, not understanding the full scope of effect of policy changes opens the door to a wave of unintended consequences that most Americans—especially business leaders—aren’t ready for. A closer look at local data can reveal a clearer picture of what company boards and business leaders need to know. This article offers policy makers, business leaders and community stakeholders the chance to consider insights needed to mitigate the likely negative impact of removing migrant groups from local economies.
Immigration Policy Rebalance and Impact on Companies
Immigration policy shapes both national and local interests, yet public debate remains fixated on the former. News coverage leans heavily on “national values”—the principles America was built on—and “national security,” encompassing sovereignty, border control, and entry terms. Missing from this narrative are the tangible impacts on local businesses, farmers, manufacturers, and exporters—those most affected by policy decisions.
Over the past 140 years, immigration patterns have evolved dramatically. Today’s immigrants arrive from more diverse backgrounds, driven by varied motivations, and are widely dispersed and deeply woven into America’s economic and social fabric.
Before World War II, infrastructure expansion—railways, highways, skyscrapers, public works—shaped immigrant settlement. These projects attracted labor where demand was high, and workforce needs tracked with development cycles.
As a result, immigrant labor was easy to locate and utilize. When demand waned, these populations were often marginalized or expelled. Immigration policy followed this ebb and flow—welcoming labor in times of need and restricting it when priorities shifted.
From New Facts to New Metrics on Likely Disruptions
In the wake of World War II, the United States emerged as the unchallenged leader of the “free world,” defining its mission in moral terms: to defeat totalitarianism and champion democratic ideals. This aspirational vision shaped U.S. foreign policy and solidified its role as a global advocate through institutions like the United Nations.
Pearl Harbor marked a turning point, disrupting long-standing isolationism and ushering in a more integrated global posture. As the postwar order took form, America's leadership demanded a rethinking of foundational policies—particularly its stance on immigration and the role of foreign-born individuals. National identity, global responsibility, and immigration policy became increasingly intertwined.
Unlike its cautious approach to refugees during the war, the U.S. took a more active role in resettlement after the conflict. Through its leadership in the UN and the Marshall Plan, it embraced a worldview linking American prosperity to global stability. This shift introduced concepts like human rights, humanitarian aid, and asylum, which influenced new immigration categories and embedded global norms into domestic law—reflecting a deeper sense of moral and strategic obligation.
The American Community in which U.S. Business Lives
Post–World War II immigrants came from Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East—motivated by conflict, persecution, and opportunity. They settled not only in gateway cities but also in suburbs, small towns, and emerging economic centers, becoming deeply integrated into the American cultural and civic fabric.
I recently attended an Eagle Scout Court of Honor in Astoria, Queens—an event steeped in tradition and values. What struck me was the sense of purpose shared by all present: scouts, families, and community members united in celebrating character, leadership, and service. The ceremony’s message transcended achievement—it was a call to live meaningfully by caring for others.
These ideals, long regarded as pillars of American life, are continually broadened by immigrant communities. In places like Astoria, their contributions reshape familiar institutions and deepen our understanding of belonging.
Afterward, the community gathered for a shared meal—dishes spanning Indian, Thai, Korean, Filipino, Mexican, Middle Eastern, and American cuisines. Together, they formed more than a buffet; they reflected a living metaphor of America’s evolving identity.
This moment underscored a broader truth: immigrant communities continue to enrich and redefine the American experience. The question facing today’s business leaders is clear—will the sector work to reshape these communities, or embrace and invest in their evolving roles within society?
Immigrants in the U.S. Today: Some Data Points
As of mid-2022, nearly 48 million immigrants lived in the United States, making up roughly 14% of the total population. Of these, 11 million—about 23%—were classified as unauthorized. Strikingly, these individuals reside in 6.4 million households encompassing over 22 million people. While 86% of those households include an unauthorized householder or spouse, 70% contain at least one U.S. citizen or legal resident—revealing a deeply interconnected social and economic reality.
Approximately 8.3 million unauthorized immigrants were active in the workforce in 2022. Many fall within the prime working-age bracket of 25 to 54, where they represent 67% of that group—compared to just 40% in the general U.S. population. They contribute across key sectors: agriculture (22%), construction (15%), and manufacturing (8%), as well as vital service industries like healthcare, hospitality, transportation, and childcare.
Post–World War II immigration policy was reshaped by America’s ascendant role as a global superpower. The country expanded access to individuals fleeing authoritarian regimes while creating pathways for skilled labor and displaced persons. This reflected both humanitarian commitments and geopolitical strategy—particularly in response to Cold War tensions with the Soviet Union and China.
As immigration increased, legislative reform lagged. Lawmakers issued periodic amnesties and vague promises of overhaul but failed to match policy with economic realities. Immigrant populations diversified, spread across the country, and embedded themselves in the nation’s cultural and labor fabric.
The notion that mass deportation would benefit American workers ignores these facts. Unauthorized immigrants, while a minority in most industries, play essential roles. Their removal would destabilize entire sectors, raise costs, and harm U.S. workers and families. The economic consequences would be severe and self-defeating.
Our National Conversations and Data Predict Deportation and Its Impact on Main Street
National-level data often obscures the local economic consequences of large-scale deportation policies. For example, East et al. (2023) studied the impact of the "Secure Communities" initiative (2008–2015), during which 454,000 unauthorized immigrants were deported. Their findings were stark: U.S.-born workers saw a 0.5% drop in employment and a 0.6% decline in hourly wages—particularly among men in medium-skilled jobs within industries dependent on unauthorized labor.
Two factors explain this disruption:
Reduced consumer demand: Fewer residents translated into lower local spending.
Labor complementarity: Native-born workers often filled roles intertwined with those held by unauthorized immigrants; removing one disrupted the other.
Other case studies reinforce this pattern. In Arizona, anti-immigration laws triggered the exit of about 40% of unauthorized immigrants between 2007 and 2008. A joint study by The Wall Street Journal and Moody’s estimated that this reduced Arizona’s annual GDP by 2% from 2008 to 2015.
Bohn et al. (2015) found that the shrinking labor force in Arizona resulted in a 4% drop in employment and a 2-point rise in unemployment for low-skilled, U.S.-born white men—highlighting the ripple effect on native workers.
Broader economic modeling underscores the risk. Edwards and Ortega (2016) projected that nationwide mass deportation could reduce U.S. GDP by $5 trillion between 2017 and 2026, with disproportionate losses in states like California, Texas, Nevada, and New Jersey. Hard-hit industries include agriculture, construction, leisure and hospitality, and retail—sectors where workforce reductions could reach 18%.
In Texas alone, Rodriguez-Sanchez (2020) estimated a 10% contraction in the state economy—roughly $172 billion at 2018 levels—plus nearly $70 billion in lost earnings and $421 million in fiscal losses tied to mass deportation.
The bottom line: restrictive immigration policies may aim for control, but their unintended consequences often include economic contraction, labor instability, and community disruption—realities national data rarely illuminates.
Why Solutions Like Our Present Raise Questions
Recent immigration and resettlement patterns have created a deeply interwoven economic system between immigrant communities and U.S. industries. Consequently, the impact of mass deportations reaches far beyond those being removed, destabilizing entire sectors and local economies.
Unauthorized immigrants, heavily represented in fields like construction, agriculture, healthcare, and hospitality, are essential to critical functions. Forcibly removing them would disrupt millions of jobs, including those held by authorized immigrants and U.S. citizens whose lives and livelihoods are closely linked. In states like Texas, Florida, California, and New York, which collectively house nearly 10.5 million unauthorized immigrants, the effects would be especially pronounced. Source: Pew Research Center, July 2024.
Economic studies project that mass deportations could shrink GDP by 5.5–7.4% and raise consumer prices by up to 9.1% by 2028. For every 500,000 immigrants removed, an estimated 44,000 U.S.-born workers could lose their jobs. Agriculture and construction would suffer most—potentially losing 225,000 and 1.5 million workers respectively—even after accounting for domestic labor inflows.
Though unauthorized workers comprise just 4.4–5.4% of the labor force, their concentration in high-impact sectors means their removal would trigger severe labor shortages, inflate production costs, and shrink output—leading to price hikes borne by the American public.
These aren’t fringe industries. They are the backbone of daily life, from food and housing to healthcare and infrastructure. Undermining their stability risks reverberating across the entire economy.
The Impact on Governance of U.S. Business
To grasp the real-world consequences of immigration policy, it's worth looking beyond statistics. A friend who owns a successful non-union construction business recently described how tighter enforcement has disrupted his operations—not because his workers lack authorization, but because the broader labor ecosystem is fraying. Crews often arrive with only half their members, fearing detention or deportation, regardless of legal status.
This example is emblematic of a larger economic fragility. Immigrant communities sustain entire networks—restaurants, markets, health centers, rental properties—not all of which are run by immigrants, but all of which depend on them. Remove a significant portion of this population, and businesses close, rents go unpaid, and landlords struggle. These domino effects threaten not just immigrant lives, but the stability of local economies.
Healthcare facilities, civic institutions, and law enforcement agencies also suffer. Federally qualified health centers lose clients, forcing cuts in services and jobs. Police departments lose the trust built over years, undermining public safety. And local businesses, once reliant on community cohesion, now face an unstable environment as fear and disruption seep into the wider public.
This isn’t speculation—it’s predictable. The cumulative effect of mass deportation policies jeopardizes housing values, retail vitality, local tax bases, and workforce resilience. Left unchecked, these pressures will outpace the ability of municipalities to respond—especially in less affluent regions.
Ultimately, these consequences extend to publicly traded companies and major enterprises. Immigration enforcement isn’t just a policy issue—it’s a business risk that must be integrated into strategic planning and governance frameworks.
Business Opportunities for Companies and Local Leaders to Consider
Periods of rapid change offer rare chances for entrepreneurs to rethink systems built for outdated realities. But meaningful solutions require more than innovation—they demand insight rooted in the lived experiences of those being served, especially as communities evolve.
Current immigration policies undermine this foundation by eroding the trust essential for open dialogue, collaboration, and inclusive growth. Enforcement tactics have sown fear and fractured relationships that once fueled investment and opportunity.
Federal officials, entrusted with public welfare, have failed to reckon with the predictable consequences of these policies—damaging communities and corroding the democratic principles they’re sworn to uphold.
Locally, economic resilience depends on trust—built across differences and sustained through shared values. Immigrant communities have long fueled growth in smaller cities and towns, enriching lives and fostering mobility. Free from national political toxicity, native-born and immigrant populations often form symbiotic ties that strengthen the American dream.
The notion that segments of our society can be surgically removed without harming others is demonstrably false. Deportation policies rest on outdated assumptions that ignore the deeply interwoven nature of our social and economic fabric—revealed daily in the lives and contributions of the people who make our communities thrive.