Business Flash Points: Parsing the Pulse of Global Disruption
As autumn unfolds, global fault lines are deepening—from Washington’s fiscal brinkmanship to Europe’s political fragmentation. In this timely exchange, Christopher P. Skroupa engages Dr. DJ Peterson, President of Longview Global Advisors and leading expert in geostrategy, in a candid dialogue on the forces reshaping markets, business leadership, and international order. What emerges is a portrait of a world teetering between recalibration and rupture. Read further for a glimpse into what the rest of 2025 may reveal. Click on the Longview logo to read additional insights offered by DJ Peterson.
Written by: Christopher P. Skroupa, Founder & CEO, Skytop Media Group
Christopher: DJ, this summer felt unusually turbulent. What were the key geopolitical and domestic developments that shaped the season?
DJ: You're right—it was a noisy and consequential summer. We saw the passage of OBBA, escalating US tariff threats and tentative deals, intensified efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and a surge in immigrant deportations. The Trump administration pushed aggressively to reshape American institutions, while Israel’s occupation of Gaza and its brief war with Iran added to regional instability. And then there’s the AI revolution.
Christopher: As we head into fall, what’s your outlook for global stability?
DJ: More volatility, unfortunately. Economic signals are very mixed, and political disruption is likely to intensify. The U.S., in particular, is facing legal, fiscal, and institutional upheavals that could reshape its trajectory and its role in the world.
Christopher: Let’s start with the U.S. Can the Trump administration maintain its momentum and deliver faster growth?
DJ: That’s uncertain. Several court decisions have challenged the administration’s use of emergency powers—especially around tariffs, deportations, and spending policy. If the tariff ruling holds, it could unravel provisional trade deals and destabilize revenue expectations. One strategist warned that “the bond market may riot” if tariff revenues disappear.
Christopher: What’s happening with interest rates and the Fed?
DJ: Mixed signals. Trump’s attempted takeover of the Fed aims to lower short-term rates, but it’s undermining investor confidence. A quarter-point rate cut is expected at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting, but long-term rates may rise due to inflation fears and credibility concerns.
Christopher: The labor market seems shaky. What is the latest?
DJ: August was rough. Hiring slowed dramatically, unemployment ticked up, and federal employment dropped. The foreign-born labor force also shrank. Notably, Trump fired the BLS commissioner after the release of this downbeat data, but then more negative data came out.
Christopher: How are consumers reacting?
DJ: Sentiment is down after a post-election spike. The University of Michigan’s index has declined for three straight months, and Gallup shows deteriorating public mood. Price pressures remain at the top of mind. Corporate shakeups—like the breakups of Keurig Dr Pepper and Kraft Heinz—underscore the strain.
Christopher: What should we watch for in September?
DJ: The FY26 budget battle. Despite GOP control, there’s a rift: House Republicans want deep cuts, while Senate Republicans are pushing more bipartisan proposals. The outcome will shape fiscal policy and investor confidence.
Christopher: Let’s pivot to Europe. What’s driving political volatility there?
DJ: Four headwinds: sluggish growth, the Russia threat, America First trade policies, and widening budget deficits. U.S.-EU trade relations are fraying—most EU goods now face a 15% tariff, while US exports remain largely duty-free. Brussels’ energy and tech purchases from the U.S. are stirring political backlash.
Christopher: France seems especially fragile. What is the situation?
DJ: Prime Minister Bayrou was forced out over deficit cuts in a confidence vote September 8. Strikes are planned. A government collapse would disrupt government spending (a big deal in France) and raise borrowing costs. Regardless of who takes over, instability will persist.
Christopher: Are other European nations facing similar challenges?
DJ: Yes. Romania’s austerity plan is under fire after a very contentious election. Germany’s stimulus and rearmament efforts are stalling. Poland’s leadership is divided. And Britain’s Labour government is struggling to fix the economy, deepen the fiscal hole, and restore public services—fueling populist anger.