China’s Move to Take a Bite Out of Hunger: At a Price Worth Questioning
By N. MacDonnell Ulsch, Contributing Author / June 9, 2025
Mr. Ulsch is the Founder and Chief Analyst of Gray Zone Research & Intelligence—China Series, focusing on China’s technology-driven strategy for global economic supremacy. He advises the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on China’s cyber and technology transfer threats and has led incident investigations in 70 countries as a former Senior Managing Director at PwC’s cybercrime practice.
His research includes the impact of technology transfer on China’s economic strategy, US corporate regulatory risk, China’s supply chain penetration, and Military-Civil Fusion as a cyber threat. His LinkedIn China Polls have over 200,000 views and 25,000 followers.
Mr. Ulsch advises an East African presidential cabinet-in-exile on countering China’s Belt & Road Initiative. Previously, he served as a cyber threat advisor to the CIA, focusing on US cyber adversaries and attacks on the commercial sector and Defense Industrial Base. He also served on the US Secrecy Commission and advised a US presidential campaign on cybersecurity.
He is a Guest Lecturer on Cyber Warfare at West Point and a Research Fellow in the Master’s in Cybersecurity program at Boston College, which he helped establish.
Mr. Ulsch has authored two books: Cyber Threat: How to Manage the Growing Risk of Cyber Attacks and Threat! Managing Risk in a Hostile World. He is a Distinguished Fellow of the Ponemon Institute and serves as an Independent Director of a financial services company, focusing on cybersecurity and privacy issues.
Opportunity and Peril
Whether due to luck, timing or strategic foresight, the People’s Republic of China recognized early on the critical importance of food security—understanding that hunger and famine present both opportunity and peril. China’s approach to food security has stood in stark contrast to that of the former Soviet Union, whose agricultural missteps in the 1970s and 1980s led to severe grain shortages and a reliance on imports from the United States and other nations.
Project 863
The Soviet Union’s agricultural failures were driven by droughts, extreme temperatures, poor infrastructure, outdated practices, and mismanagement. Learning from these mistakes, China sought to avoid similar outcomes by embracing advanced technologies. In March 1986, the Chinese Communist Party launched Project 863—named for the date (March, the third month of 1986)—marking the beginning of a technological transformation aimed at securing China’s future.
Project 863 laid the foundation for China’s ambition to become the world’s leading economic power. Among its six core technological priorities was Advanced Agricultural Technology—a key to ensuring food security.
Global Food Supplier
Perhaps influenced by the devastating Great Chinese Famine of 1959–1961 (and arguably extending from 1958 to 1962), as well as the Soviet crop failures, China has positioned itself as a global food supplier, particularly to the developing world.
By 2021, China owned 384,000 acres of U.S. farmland—a 30% increase from 2019. While not the largest foreign landholder, China’s agricultural footprint in the U.S. is significant. It also owns Smithfield Foods and maintains a global joint venture with Tyson Foods.
Leveraging AI
China is leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to reshape the global food security landscape, aiming to supply food to developing nations in exchange for geopolitical and economic influence. AI is being used to enhance food efficiency, sustainability, and quality. It supports quality control systems, improves product consistency and safety, and enables precision agriculture—using algorithms to optimize irrigation, fertilization, and pest control. AI also helps detect foodborne contamination, reduce waste, and optimize resource use.
While the U.S. still leads in basic AI research and private investment, China is rapidly closing the gap in AI performance and has become a leader in practical applications. China’s goal is to increase crop yields and meat production through technological innovation—an evolution of Project 863’s original vision.
Geopolitical Leverage
Food security is more than just delivering food—it is a tool of geopolitical leverage. It can be used for diplomacy, manipulation, coercion, and even enforcement. For China, food security is a strategic asset, potentially influencing foreign policy decisions, including support for its sovereignty over Taiwan. As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, China reportedly uses food aid as leverage, pressuring developing nations to support its claims over Taiwan. When the choice is between food and Taiwan, Taiwan often loses.
E-Commerce Strategy
China’s e-commerce strategy also incorporates food security, which depends heavily on cold storage infrastructure to preserve food during long shipments. Key Chinese companies in this sector include Kendall Cold Chain System Co., Ltd., Sunnyda, Swire Cold Chain Logistics Co., Ltd., and China Merchants Cold Chain Co., Ltd. Beijing Howcool Refrigeration Technology Co., Ltd. is another major player. These firms provide cold storage plants, cold rooms, and logistics solutions.
Critical Maritime Companies
Chinese maritime companies such as COSCO, Sinotrans, and China Merchants are critical to global food distribution. International firms also play a role—Japan’s MOL (Mitsui O.S.K.), France’s CMA CGM (with a major presence in Shanghai), and South Korea’s Hyundai Merchant Marine are all active in China. Notably, North Korea has launched cyberattacks against Hyundai, allegedly stealing proprietary maritime technologies later sold to China. These attacks have historically helped fund North Korea’s economy amid international sanctions.
Primary Security Food Provider
China is now well-positioned to become a primary food security provider to both developing and developed nations. Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has become the world’s third-largest shipping power by carrying capacity. Shanghai is the world’s busiest port, and COSCO is the largest shipping company globally. China manufactures 96% of the world’s shipping containers and controls 11% of global shipping capacity. In contrast, the U.S. ranks tenth.
A recent U.S. Navy report estimates that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 270 times greater than that of the United States—an enormous strategic advantage. This positions China to dominate global e-commerce and food distribution.
Toppling Empires
No nation wants to face widespread hunger or famine. History shows that food insecurity can topple empires—from the Great Famine in Ireland, which killed up to a million people, to the Roman Empire’s decline during food shortages, to North Korea’s 1990s famine, which claimed between 240,000 and 3.5 million lives. Even the U.S. experienced mass migration and hardship during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.
Geopolitical Weapon
Food security is not just a humanitarian issue—it is a geopolitical weapon. And China is wielding it with increasing precision. It is no coincidence that many countries suffering from food crises have become targets of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Notably, eight of the ten nations most afflicted by extreme hunger are participants in the BRI. While China has pledged approximately $8 billion in development funding—some of which is directed toward agricultural improvements—countries like South Sudan continue to experience widespread hunger and malnutrition, contributing to a severe healthcare crisis.
Pursuit of Dominance
Despite these challenges, China is expected to continue its aggressive pursuit of dominance in the global food security market, leveraging its growing e-commerce infrastructure and technological capabilities. The implications are vast—geopolitical, economic, and technological. There are also significant military considerations, as China simultaneously expands its defense infrastructure and capabilities.
Reshaping the Global Order
China is playing the long game, but it is not waiting to act. It is rapidly acquiring strategic assets around the world, and food security is among the most powerful of these. Even as some of its debtor nations remain mired in food insecurity, China’s moves on the global chessboard are deliberate and far-reaching. Where many nations view food insecurity as an unfortunate consequence of natural disasters or political instability, China sees opportunity.
Food security is not just a humanitarian goal for China—it is a strategic instrument.
It is a pathway to global economic supremacy, driven by geopolitical influence and technological innovation. Through commerce, opportunity, and engagement, China is reshaping the global order—one shipment, one investment, and one meal at a time.